The Iran Nuclear Deal. A good deal? or as incompetent as Donald Trump Claims?

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Donald J. Trump ran for President as the so-called outsider. He had no political experience. He was after all just a businessman. The businessman angle was one Mr. Trump drove home during his campaign rallies. His key message being that because of his business knowledge and skill in creating deals he would make sure that if elected America got the best deals possible in all aspects of government. One of the major deals trump referenced was the Iran nuclear deal signed between Iran, the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany.

Trump said in a campaign speech that he had never seen a deal so incompetently negotiated and that those leading the negotiations on behalf of America were “stupid, stupid people”. The people Mr. Trump was referring to, as stupid people were President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry.

The Iran deal was born out of a fear from western nations and Israel that Iran had been developing offensive nuclear technologies especially as Iran had been outwardly showing a lot of ill feeling towards western nation and had stated that it wanted the complete destruction of Israel. These beliefs led to sanctions being imposed on Iran for years that stunted the nations economy. Iran has vast oil wealth but because of sanctions it was increasingly hard to trade the oil or gain access to the money they were owed from the oil trade. Due to the sanctions countries trading oil with Iran couldn’t pay directly in cash so the money was held in what were essentially a series of escrow accounts that Iran had no access to.

It had been hoped that these sanction would bring the Iranians to the table to negotiate. It took along time but eventually in 2015 Iran agreed to negotiate a deal. The deal was essentially that Iran would not develop nuclear weapons and would become subject to regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency and in return sanctions would be lifted and all off shore money released from the escrow accounts. On the face of it that seems like a great deal for everybody concerned. Iran gets its money from being able to trade it oil reserves and the western nations as reassured that a possibly hostile Islamic nation is not developing offensive nuclear weapons. A great deal yes…as long as it enforced.

Since January 2016 when the deal came into effect Iran has supposedly breached the terms of the deal 3, yes 3, times! 3 times in 11 months that’s a lot for a nation trying to re-establish itself on the global scene and where such violations could re-impose the economic sanctions of yesteryear. Iran has violated the amount of “heavy water” they are allowed to hold on 2 occasions. Heavy water is a problem as it is a nuclear residue left over from the production of nuclear power that can be converted into the required chemical state for a nuclear warhead.

The other main violation by Iran has been the testing of ballistic missiles and surface-to-surface missiles. Iran maintains this isn’t in breach of the deal but even if that were so it would firstly beg the question why on earth that wasn’t one of the stipulations of the agreement and also the testing coupled with the breach of heavy water would indicate that the deal hasn’t exactly scared Iran into cooperating. Perhaps Trump is correct that this is a great deal for Iran and that they are laughing at the deal they have pulled off? Maybe Iran is having its nuclear enriched cake (served on the gold plates from all the new oil money of course) and eating it. What is certain is that there have been multiple violations of the agreement yet no sanctions have been placed on Iran.

On paper it’s a fantastic deal. In reality it appears to only be a deal that is benefiting Iran, as the actualities of enforcing it have appeared more challenging than the politicians drafting the deal could have imagined. However Trump has stated that because its so bad he would repeal and replace the deal with a better one negotiated by him. That debate is a non-starter. It is not a deal between Iran and America. There are 5 other western signatories on the deal and there is no way that happens. You may be right that the deal isn’t proving to be any good Mr. President Elect, however It would appear that there is absolutely nothing you can actually do about it.

Samuel Green.

 

Bibliography

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2015/sep/09/donald-trump-iran-nuclear-deal-stupid-people-video

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33521655

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/majid-rafizadeh/iran-breached-the-nuclear_b_9977768.html

http://www.weeklystandard.com/iran-breaks-nuclear-deal-but-the-obama-administration-wont-say-its-a-formal-violation/article/2005321

 

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